Categorical Aperitif

Only a week ago, we here in Florida were watching Ike with some trepidation; now, my thoughts go out to all the people in Texas and Louisiana who are in this thing's path. The warnings from the Galveston NWS office are really quite scary:

Maximum water levels forecast:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 7 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 3 to 5 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 8 to 14 feet

Galveston Island... ... 14 to 17 feet

Bolivar Peninsula... 17 to 20 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay... 15 to 22 feet

Life threatening inundation likely near the immediate coast and Bayshore areas!

Neighborhoods that are affected by the storm surge... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes face the possibility of death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves closer to the coast. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

One can't help but think of the awful Galveston Hurricane of 1900, but the good Dr. Jeff Masters notes that the forecast seems worse for another Texas city a little farther up the coast:

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Best wishes to all—stay as safe as you can and let's all hope for the best.